2025 Oscar Predictions via Collider’s Perri Nemiroff

The Super Bowl of cinema is upon us. Welcome to Collider’s FYC hub, your best resource for Oscars 2025 predictions. Here, Senior Producer Perri Nemiroff keeps you up to date on the leading contenders based on her knowledge of industry trends and whispers, and her own personal thoughts and instincts. Remember to come back often for updates! The odds are always changing.

Update: November 28, 2024

Last year, we had our Oscar frontrunner in July. Christopher Nolan‘s Oppenheimer hit theaters, immediately secured the top spot in many Academy Award categories, and then went on to win seven of them. This year, however, we’ve got quite a few heavy hitters and, thus far, no single one has emerged as a runaway favorite.

2025 awards season chatter began at the Cannes Film Festival where Anora and Emilia Pérez emerged as early favorites. While both have managed to maintain that momentum, later festivals added more to the mix, most notably, Conclave and The Brutalist, both of which secured high honors at the Venice International Film Festival. We’re also getting some late-season entries that are shaping up to be major players this season, like September 5 directed by Tim Fehlbaum and A Completed Unknown from James Mangold. However, all could see their chances rocked by a less likely contender. It’s Jon M. Chu‘s adaptation of the hit musical, Wicked.

As a longtime fan of the musical, my fingers were crossed mighty tight for a worthy big screen adaptation. While hopes were high we’d get a good Wicked movie, given the show is so iconic and the film is so ambitious, it felt like a reach to hold out hope for Oscar nominations. Less than a week into the film’s release, not only is Wicked guaranteed to become an Academy Award nominee, it’s likely going to be a multi-category nominee, including Best Picture, where it’s currently my frontrunner to win.

BEST PICTURE

Current Frontrunner: Wicked

Also in Contention: I’m Still Here, Maria, Nickel Boys, A Complete Unknown

BEST DIRECTOR

Current Frontrunner: Sean Baker

Also in Contention: Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two, Walter Salles for I’m Still Here, Coralie Fargeat for The Substance

BEST ACTRESS

Current Frontrunner: Mikey Madison

Also in Contention: Angeline Jolie for Maria, Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here

BEST ACTOR

Current Frontrunner: Ralph Fiennes

Also in Contention: Daniel Craig for Queer, Sebastian Stan for A Different Man, John David Washington for The Piano Lesson

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Current Frontrunner: Zoe Saldaña

Also in Contention: Selena Gomez for Emilia Pérez, Joan Chen for Dìdi, Leonie Benesch for September 5

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Current Frontrunner: Kieran Culkin

Also in Contention: Denzel Washington for Gladiator II, Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice, Peter Sarsgaard for September 5, John Magaro for September 5, Mark Eydelshteyn for Anora